TBFQ - JTG SI: Drivers of Path Dependence and Change in Port Hinterlands

This study examines the potential for establishing a circular economy precinct centred around green steel production at the Port of Newcastle, Australia, as a strategy to diversify away from its reliance on coal exports. Using system dynamics modelling and sensitivity analysis, the study assesses the economic viability of green steel production under various market conditions, including fluctuations in green steel pricing, carbon credit values, and production costs. The findings reveal that while green steel production offers promising profitability, its economic success is highly sensitive to production costs, supply of material inputs, changes in carbon credit prices and market dynamics. We found that the precinct would be feasible under high steel prices and premiums, achieving monthly profits of up to $8.25 million by 2025 and $15.5 million by 2050, but it remains sensitive to low steel prices and high Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) costs, requiring up to $140 per ACCU to break even in low-price scenarios. The study highlights the importance of supportive policy measures, such as increased ACCU allocation, renewable energy infrastructure development, and market incentives like green steel certification and government procurement mandates, to enhance the viability of this diversification strategy

Europe's ongoing struggle with congestion, pollution, and societal costs from road transport has prompted calls for modal shift toward more sustainable transport options, particularly inland waterway transport (IWT). However, little progress has been made despite longstanding political objectives. This study develops a data-driven methodological framework designed to identify modal shift opportunities by integrating demand- and supply-side factors across societal, geographical, infrastructural and commercial parameters. Applying the framework to a case study in the Netherlands, the study identifies High External Cost Areas (HECAs), Traffic Intense Corridors (TICs), and Waterborne Alternative Corridors (WACs), and maps enabling and constraining infrastructure, current IWT services, and potential freight customers. The findings highlight the overlooked potential of smaller waterway classes (CEMT II–IV), which are often neglected in traditional transport planning. This corresponds with emerging research on the role of autonomy in enabling smaller, cost-effective vessels to revitalise IWT, and further underscores the importance of ecosystem alignment when developing innovative transport solutions. Consequently, this study contributes with a novel approach to identifying and developing sustainable modal shift strategies in line with Europe's climate ambitions, combining design parameters, boundary conditions and business ecosystems.

The Circular Economy (CE) concept is gaining global importance, particularly in the maritime industry due to its significant resource consumption and environmental impact. Ports, as critical nodes in supply chains, are increasingly viewed as hubs for sustainability efforts. However, limited research exists on adopting CE principles in small peripheral ports. This paper examines how CE principles can be implemented in Badas Port, in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, which predominantly handles corn, livestock and containers under 10,000 TEUs annually. Badas Port's challenges include dependency on limited shipping routes and fluctuating cargo volumes. This study employs a mixed-methods approach, including field observations and interviews with stakeholders like port operators, cargo owners and local businesses. The output describes a proposed plan for development of Badas Port. Findings indicate that implementing CE activities in small peripheral ports is feasible. Unlike larger hub ports that benefit from consolidation and higher volumes, small ports should prioritize increasing cargo volumes and attract businesses through CE initiatives, which can drive economic growth and sustainability simultaneously. Fostering stakeholder collaboration and leveraging port's role as sustainability hubs are also essential. This study provides practical recommendations and highlights the transformative potential of CE principles in small peripheral ports worldwide.