TDEP - Energy Efficiency for Maritime and Ports

The maritime industry faces increasing pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, making Wind-Assisted Ship Propulsion (WASP) technologies a promising solution for sustainable shipping. However, the economic feasibility and operational efficiency of these systems depend on multiple factors, including technology costs, fuel savings, environmental conditions, and regulatory incentives. This paper presents a comprehensive and innovative financial modeling framework to assess the viability of different WASP technologies, such as Flettner rotors, wing sails, kites, and ventoils, across various vessel types and operational routes. The model integrates Net Present Value (NPV) analysis, considering capital and operational expenditures, regulatory incentives, and market conditions. In addition, it incorporates wind and sea current interactions, optimizing vessel speed and evaluating potential energy savings under various environmental conditions. The model aims to support informed decision-making for shipowners, policymakers, and investors regarding the adoption and investment in wind-assisted propulsion systems, thereby contributing to the advancement of sustainable shipping practices.

The shipping industry is set to face increased energy demand, likely expecting higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To understand the feasibility of the IMO 2050 target, it's essential to explore how trade and energy demand in shipping may evolve. This paper examines the Middle East & Africa (MEA) region, focusing on the impact of energy efficiency improvements on energy demand estimated from future seaborne trade. Data from the Market Intelligence Network (MINT) database (S&P Global, 2011–2021) was analyzed using a dynamic panel data model with the bias-corrected least squares dummy variable (LSDVC) estimator, which addresses issues like endogeneity bias, autocorrelation, and unit root problems. The MEA region, comprising 51 countries[1], exported 3.7 billion tons in 2021. Exports are projected to rise to 6.6 billion tons by 2050, reflecting an average annual growth of 2%. Energy demand projections for 2050 under three scenarios were analyzed using IEA energy intensity data. Under the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, demand is expected to increase by 0.53 mboe/d, while the Energy Efficiency (EE) scenario forecasts a smaller increase of 0.15 mboe/d. The Sustainable Development (SD) scenario suggests a decrease of 0.07 mboe/d, highlighting the potential for significant energy reductions. This approach offers valuable insights into future energy demand and GHG emissions.
[1] Algeria, Angola, Bahrain, Benin, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Comoros, Congo (Democratic Republic), Cote D'ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan (Gulf), Kenya, Kuwait, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Mauritania, Mauritius, ,Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Reunion, Sao Tome & Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Syria, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen

Maritime transport imposes a severe emission burden on the global environment. In response, both international organizations and local governments are implementing rules and regulations aiming at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A recent example is that European Union has included the maritime sector into the Emissions Trading System to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, many ports are adopting Just-In-Time services to optimize vessel speeds, reduce idle time therefore lowering both carbon emissions and bunker consumptions. However, carbon pricing could impact JIT adoption by forcing deceleration, potentially reducing efficiency. This study develops a stylized queueing model to evaluate the effect of bunker savings achieved through JIT service. Given the variety of carbon tax and trading schemes, we simplify the issue by focusing on a fixed carbon tax, analyzing how it influences the decision-making of both carriers and ports, while accounting for variations in port costs and potential revenue-sharing models. The model is extended to include multiple carriers, offering insights into how carbon pricing affects JIT adoption among different port and carrier sizes. Based on our findings, we provide policy recommendations to governments on how to promote the adoption of JIT services while balancing emission reduction goals and ensuring overall system efficiency.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) introduced the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) to regulate emissions in shipping. However, compliance strategies can lead to paradoxical behaviors, such as excessive sailing distances to dilute carbon intensity, ultimately increasing emissions and reducing profitability. This study examines the impact of CII regulations on tramp shipping operations under different port berthing strategies. We develop four optimization models to analyze various compliance and berthing strategies. The baseline model (M-TOP) optimizes tramp shipping operations without CII constraints. V1-ADT incorporates a First-Come, First-Served (FCFS) berthing strategy, requiring vessels to adjust their schedules accordingly. V2-CII introduces CII compliance constraints, affecting decisions on voyage distances and cargo selection. V3-JIT integrates Just-in-Time (JIT) arrival strategies to enhance coordination between vessels and ports. Numerical results reveal two primary responses to CII regulations: some vessels comply by reducing cargo transport, while others exhibit paradoxical behavior by increasing sailing distances. The introduction of JIT mitigates these inefficiencies, reducing unnecessary emissions and improving profitability. For vessels that forgo cargo, JIT helps restore transport levels while maintaining compliance. These findings highlight JIT as an effective strategy for balancing environmental regulations with economic efficiency in tramp shipping.

Cruise ships are frequently criticized for their substantial environmental impact, particularly in terms of emissions and the challenges posed by overtourism. In response, the industry is increasingly adopting renewable energy sources, shore power connections, and innovative propulsion systems to minimize its ecological footprint. These efforts are driven by rising energy costs, volatile fuel prices, growing environmental awareness among consumers, and tightening international and national regulations. Cruise seaports also play a key role by offering financial incentives, such as reduced fees, to encourage the adoption of sustainable technologies applied on cruise ships. The goal of this study is to assess the trends in the fuel and propulsion systems used in cruise ships. By examining 307 ocean-going vessels, the research focuses on passenger capacity, year of construction, and propulsion methods. A combination of systematic literature review and data analysis provides a foundation for evaluating current practices and identifying emerging solutions. Statistical methods were applied to uncover patterns and relationships among these variables. The findings are intended for several key stakeholders: ship designers seeking to incorporate advanced propulsion technologies, policymakers regulating maritime emissions, and crusie seaport authorities aiming to create incentive structures for sustainable development. The study's cognitive value lies in its ability to bridge existing knowledge gaps by offering a comprehensive overview of the industry's state, highlighting how technological choices align with regulatory and market pressures. It also provides actionable insights that can help reduce environmental impacts and support the transition toward a greener, more sustainable future for cruise shipping industry.

Just-In-Time (JIT) Arrival of vessels at seaport is considered an effective way to support International Maritime Organisation's shipping decarbonisation goals. This study develops a two-stage framework to evaluate the potential benefits of JIT Arrival in real-world operations, with the Port of Singapore as a case study. First, Automatic Identification System (AIS) data is utilised to extract vessel voyages with "Sailing–Anchor Waiting–Berth (SAB)" pattern. Second, by reallocating the waiting time of these voyages to their itineraries, fuel consumption comparisons between the original and JIT Arrival-modified itineraries are conducted using the "bottom-up" fuel consumption method to quantify the potential savings. Using AIS data from October 2021 within a region spanning longitude -30° to 120° and latitude -40° to 60°, 130 SAB-patterned voyages bound for the Port of Singapore are identified. Under the current practice of issuing the first JIT notification 72 hours prior to a vessel's arrival, these vessels achieve a 15.7% fuel consumption reduction. Earlier notifications further enhance benefits, with a maximum reduction reaching 40.8% at a minimum economical speed. The findings provide a reference for evaluating and improving the JIT practice at the Port of Singapore while supporting broader JIT Arrival implementation in global ports.