TBFN - Energy Transition at Maritime and Ports

Transport chains face increasing pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from multiple directions. Transport companies and cargo owners are subjected to various regulations, some global and others regional or national, and are under pressure from stakeholders to comply. From the perspective of overall economic efficiency, emission reductions should occur where they are most cost-effective. However, as many regulations are confined to individual modes or industries, there is a risk that emission reductions may not be allocated efficiently across the entire transport chain.


This research examines the optimal approach for reducing emissions across an entire transport chain, considering various emission reduction targets and key regulatory initiatives such as the ETS and Fuel EU Maritime. The question was addressed by constructing an optimization model aimed at minimizing transport costs while meeting energy needs with a mix of conventional, low-carbon, and carbon-neutral fuels. The results indicate that emission reductions are more cost-efficient when focused initially on road transport, followed by reductions in the maritime sector. Policy instruments such as the ETS do not appear to make emission reductions at sea cost-effective. Additionally, the use of alternative fuels will likely remain more expensive than conventional fuels at least until 2040.

The concept of Green Shipping Corridors (GSCs) has recently emerged to achieve maritime decarbonization. GSC initiatives typically undergo pre-feasibility and feasibility assessments before implementation. This study presents a systematic, data-driven framework which contributes to the pre-feasibility assessment of GSCs, focusing on identifying potential corridors and vessel candidates in a large geographical region. The framework was applied to the Northern European region, specifically targeting RoRo and RoPax services. Additionally, the study examines the role of methanol as fuel. The Automatic Identification System (AIS) data was used to analyse 1,021 vessels across 440 ports in ten Northern European countries. The study identified 86 corridors and prioritized the top 30 corridors and single-corridor vessels based on emission reduction potential. The findings highlight that several corridors and vessel candidates identified in this study are part of ongoing GSC feasibility studies, emphasizing the relevance and applicability of the proposed model. It also proposes further candidates for future GSC initiatives. While methanol production is expected to increase significantly by 2030, competition with other sectors creates uncertainty in terms of availability for maritime transport. Prioritizing specific corridors and vessels for immediate fuel transition is essential to ensure a reliable and sufficient fuel supply.

This paper reviews the current progress towards decarbonisation in the maritime transport sector and discusses the prospects of alternative fuels to enable the sector to reach net zero by 2050. It begins with an overview of current fuel usage and emissions in maritime transport, which account for 2.8% of global anthropogenic carbon emissions. The latest study from the IMO predicts that the current level of emissions is expected to increase by 50% by 2050, with the best-case scenario only able to maintain the current level. The paper then discusses the alternative fuels that may contribute towards decarbonisation of the sector, such as hydrogen, ammonia and methanol, revealing that only a tiny number of vessels have renewable fuel capability, and that is mostly dual fuel engines that will continue to burn fossil fuels. Next, the paper evaluates shipping policies and governance mechanisms seeking to drive a trend towards net zero, including the roles of key institutions such as the EU and the IMO. As a result of this review, the paper concludes that, despite a proliferation of small-scale industrial trials, there is currently no credible pathway to net zero for maritime transport outside of major policy intervention aligned with significant reduction in demand for goods transport.