FAEI - Global Trade, theory and development

The international shipping network is the backbone of global trade, with ports serving as essential hubs that keep supply chains running smoothly. Recent disruptions, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains to delays at these key nodes and links.
By exploiting high-resolution data on container vessel movements and Spanish customs records, we investigate on how delays along shipping routes act as trade barriers, in the spirit of Hummels and Schaur (2013). The resulting shipping network exhibits a hybrid architecture, integrating elements of planned and decentralized systems. Moreover, by applying a gravity model framework in line with Silva and Tenreyro (2006), we estimate trade elasticities for containerized Spanish imports in response to delays, highlighting the extent to which time lost at critical nodes like ports can impact trade volumes. While we are still aware of the need for further robustness checks, our preliminary findings highlight the impact of shipping delays as trade barriers, suggesting that delays have a significant negative impact on imports.

Proposals in the United States to intervene in shipping-especially to reduce reliance on Chinese maritime capabilities-have drawn attention to the possibility of forcibly splitting the global shipping market into distinct blocs. This study evaluates the potential economic ramifications of such fragmentation by applying a two-market partial equilibrium model to Panamax bulk carriers. Under the proposed scenario, vessels operating in a "China Block" (China, Russia, Iran) are barred from serving a "Western Block" (United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, EU), and vice versa. Using monthly ton-days data from January 2023 to December 2024, the model calculates separate charter rates for each block while allowing a portion of "ROW" cargo to flow between them. Although the results show that the average charter rate under forced market splitting remains close to a single global-market benchmark (-0.2%), monthly volatility increases significantly-particularly in the China Block (2,681 USD/day vs. 2,150 USD/day in the unified market). This elevated short-term risk poses challenges for shipping operators and may lead to higher financing costs. Moreover, external factors such as weather conditions and port congestion could amplify this volatility beyond our estimates. Policymakers should consider these quantified disadvantages when determining the extent of maritime decoupling measures.

Global supply chains are crucial to international trade but are increasingly susceptible to disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts, environmental challenges, and technological shifts. This chapter highlights the need for resilience in supply chain strategies, shifting focus from efficiency-driven models to adaptive and robust frameworks. Drawing on a literature survey and referencing prior quantitative analyses, including a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) study of global natural gas trade, the chapter highlights the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate risks and sustain operations during crises.
Key findings emphasise the role of physical infrastructure, strategic stockpiling, and diversification in enhancing resilience. Policy can align resilience with sustainability objectives by advocating for infrastructure investment, regulatory mandates for risk assessment, structural pricing reforms, and international cooperation. These policies should account for each resource's commonalities and unique characteristics.
This work underscores resilience as a strategic necessity in navigating evolving trade patterns and geopolitical realignments. By integrating theoretical frameworks with actionable guidance, stakeholders can develop robust supply chains capable of withstanding disruptions and supporting global economic stability. Consequently, this chapter provides actionable insights for policymakers and industry leaders, detailing strategies to harmonise efficiency, resilience, and sustainability in the face of mounting global uncertainties.

Studies on maritime cluster have primarily focused on its components and inter-sector relatedness, while largely overlooking the long-term spatial distribution pattern of different types of maritime enterprises, and the firm clustering effects on innovation. This study utilizes micro-level maritime enterprise data in China between 2000 and 2020, along with text scrapping method to first examine the spatial evolution characteristics of maritime enterprise and further investigate the clustering effects of firms on technical innovation using empirical methodologies.

Global supply chains rely on the efficiency and reliability of liner shipping, with schedule reliability being crucial for timely deliveries and minimizing disruptions. In recent years, however, schedule reliability has deteriorated, leading to increased delays and port skipping. This study empirically analyzes schedule disruptions in liner shipping from 2016 to 2023, focusing on services connecting China with South Africa and the East Coast of South America. By comparing historical shipping schedules with Automated Identification System (AIS) data, the study examines patterns in schedule reliability. Five hypotheses explore the evolution of schedule reliability, differences between trade routes, and the impact of port geography and integration on skipping likelihood. The study also assesses operator performance and the role of ship dimensions. The findings reveal a general decline in reliability since 2016, worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic, with no full recovery. African ports faced higher skipping rates and delays compared to South American ports. Shipping operators, especially in South America, prioritize major hubs, often skipping less integrated ports, underscoring the importance of port integration. Shippers are advised to prioritize major hubs and maintain safety stock. The study concludes with recommendations for future research on schedule disruptions and their implications for liner shipping.