TBFI-Resilience and Transformation in Global Maritime Trade

This paper analyzes the consequences of the U.S. Ballast Water Management Act (2012) on invasive species at the port level in the U.S. and inthe world. We find that this policy has reduced the entry of new invasivespecies in the U.S. and in partner countries. The mechanism is based ona rapid adoption of ballast water system treatment by ships that regularlygo to the U.S. However, the policy has a leakage effect on other, less densemaritime route, where ship without ballast water treatment have been reallocated.

The transformation of global trade in the digital era has introduced new dynamics in trade finance, challenging the long-standing dominance of traditional banking instruments like Letters of Credit (L/Cs). This study investigates whether L/Cs, a staple in international trade, can remain viable amidst competition from digital platforms offering innovative solutions like blockchain-based guarantees and integrated trade assurance systems. By constructing an evolutionary game theory model, we analyze the strategic interactions between buyers and sellers under two distinct third-party guarantors: banks and digital platforms. Key variables, such as waiting cost, reputational losses, maturity coefficient of the platform's regulation and risk management capabilities, are incorporated to evaluate the fulfillment behaviors of both parties. The results highlight that the platforms hold significant advantages in scenarios involving small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) or low-risk transactions due to their cost efficiency, transparency, and integration of services like logistics and payments. However, in high-value or high-risk transactions, or in regions with underdeveloped digital ecosystems, traditional bank guarantees, such as L/Cs, maintain their dominance due to their larger user base, robust regulatory frameworks and trustworthiness. These findings suggest that while platforms are better suited to certain trade environments, traditional banking instruments still play irreplaceable roles in others.

This study investigates historical and projected climate data for three major European ports-Dunkirk, Seville, and Lisbon-to assess their vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events. Analyzing weather records from 1940 to 2024 alongside projections extending to 2050, the research identifies trends in key climatic variables, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, gusts, and sea-level air pressure. A MATLAB-based analytical framework was developed to evaluate these trends and establish operational thresholds, classified as 'Amber' and 'Red' levels in collaboration with port operations experts. The findings reveal region-specific risks: rising temperatures and precipitation in Dunkirk, increased wind intensity in Lisbon, and intensifying heatwaves in Seville. These evolving climatic conditions present substantial operational, infrastructural, and logistical challenges, emphasizing the urgency of adaptive strategies. The study underscores the critical importance of integrating climate resilience into port planning and operations to mitigate disruptions and ensure economic stability. Seasonal preparedness is particularly crucial, with a high likelihood of storm surges in Dunkirk and severe heatwaves in Seville, necessitating proactive risk management measures.